Prop Research Break-Even: State Whether Payoffs Already Include Fees
A break-even calculation changes when its payoff inputs already include costs. State the convention before comparing a research result with an evaluation plan. Counting fees twice can make a sound-looking formula answer a different question.
Explore this site’s existing research resource
Write the expected-value equation
For a teaching model with fixed net win W and fixed net loss L, both positive magnitudes, expected result is pW − (1 − p)L. Setting it to zero gives p = L/(W + L). The model assumes those payoffs are complete and fixed.
The probability p is an input or threshold in this model. It is not estimated from the equation. Real trades can have varying payoffs, unresolved outcomes and different costs; a fixed-payoff threshold does not supply a passing strategy.
Compare two fictional fee conventions
If the supplied gross win is 100, gross loss magnitude 50 and each completed outcome has cost 5, net win is 95 and net loss magnitude 55. The model threshold becomes 55/(95 + 55), approximately 36.6667%.
If 100 and 50 had instead been supplied as already-net payoffs, their threshold would be 50/150, approximately 33.3333%. Subtracting another fee in that second case would double-count it. Save the original definition rather than choosing the lower threshold.
| Field | Gross values, fee 5 separate | Already-net values |
|---|---|---|
| Supplied win / loss magnitude | 100 / 50 | 100 / 50 |
| Model net win | 95 | 100 |
| Model net loss magnitude | 55 | 50 |
| Break-even fraction | 55/150 ≈ 36.6667% | 50/150 ≈ 33.3333% |
Keep the model separate from account evidence
This site’s existing fee-convention audit is the companion worksheet. A sample closed-trade fraction additionally needs its cohort and uncertainty. An evaluation outcome needs the full path, activity and contractual conditions, not just a trade-level expected value.
The optional sponsored HashHedge link points to current programme rules. No observed win rate, pass probability or income expectation is asserted. The two thresholds come only from the fictional fixed inputs and stated fee conventions.
Sources and rule dates
- HashHedge: challenge types
Checked 2026-10-23. Selected published description only. Worked numbers and event records are fictional; no actual provider account, search result, live price, eligibility or payment is established. - HashHedge: daily loss calculation
Checked 2026-10-23. Selected published description only. Worked numbers and event records are fictional; no actual provider account, search result, live price, eligibility or payment is established. - HashHedge: terms and conditions
Checked 2026-10-23. Selected published description only. Worked numbers and event records are fictional; no actual provider account, search result, live price, eligibility or payment is established.